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Free Exam: Técnicas de previsão

Number of Questions in Test: 13
Number of Questions in Preview: 5
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Question 1
Suppose you want to forecast the number of students who will sign up for a class that you are offering. You have selected an exponential smoothing model with level and trend. Assume that Alpha=0.25, Beta=0.5. The actual demand in each time period t, noted as x(t), and the forecast for year t+1 made at time t, noted as x^(t,t+1), are shown below for the previous five years.  Recall that the carat symbol "^" indicates an estimate or forecasted value.

For example, the forecast for 2012 made in 2011 is 45.5 while the forecast for 2013 made in 2012 is 49.4.

[table][tr][td]Year[/td][td]x(t)[/td][td]x^(t,t+1)[/td][/tr][tr][td]2009[/td][td]40[/td][td]41[/td][/tr][tr][td]2010[/td][td]41[/td][td]43[/td][/tr][tr][td]2011[/td][td]44[/td][td]45.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]50[/td][td]49.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td]57[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
Type: Multiple choice
Points: 1
Randomize answers: No
Question 2
A total of 59 students ended up registering for the class in 2014. What is your new estimate of the level, that is, a^(2014)?
Type: Multiple choice
Points: 1
Randomize answers: No
Question 3
What is your new estimate of the trend, that is, b^(2014)?
Type: Multiple choice
Points: 1
Randomize answers: No
Question 4
What is your forecast for the number of students for 2019 made in 2014, that is, x^(2014, 2019)?
Type: Multiple choice
Points: 1
Randomize answers: No
Question 5
Which of the following statements is true?
Type: Multiple choice
Points: 1
Randomize answers: No
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